January mold steel market price shocks tend to run stronger

Updated 2023-01-03

Overview: December domestic die steel market prices are running strong, the market trading activity is less than expected. Steel mills, this month, Fushun special steel for all varieties of nickel containing 1% Ni price increase of 450 yuan / ton, all varieties of vanadium containing 1% V price increase of 200 yuan / ton, all varieties of molybdenum containing 1% Mo price increase of 1200 yuan / ton; Northeast special steel shares of all varieties of prices rose 100 yuan / ton, on the basis of the general increase, all varieties of nickel containing 1% Ni Price increase of 450 yuan / ton, all containing vanadium varieties containing 1% V price increase of 200 yuan / ton, all containing molybdenum varieties containing a 1% Mo price increase of 1200 yuan / ton; Tiangong Ai and special steel for all varieties containing 1% Mo price increase of 800 yuan / ton, each containing 1% V price increase of 200 yuan / ton. Raw materials, ferroalloy ferromolybdenum market prices this month showed a precipitous upward trend, multiple positive factors on the molybdenum market forward to play a supportive; ferrovanadium market prices as a whole gradually rise, the accumulation of cost pressure directly led to a more firm market sentiment, but the steel mill end of the high level of acceptance of procurement is limited; tungsten market is largely stable; high-carbon ferrochrome market is running strong, the end of the month price at 8800 yuan / ton. Domestic epidemic prevention and control implementation of the "B class B pipe", the entry and exit policy continues to be optimized, and the domestic policy tone remains positive, the macro sentiment has been boosted. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream terminal enterprises have been shut down, the short-term market is depressed. Although the release of market demand is less than expected superimposed on the pressure of post-holiday accumulation, but in the high cost push up, is expected to January mold steel market prices shock tend to run stronger.

A, the domestic mold steel steel production situation

According to my network tracking statistics special steel class mold steel production enterprises 31 (excluding Huangshi area), the total output of mold steel in December for 39,800 tons, compared with November 2022, a decrease of 0.09 million tons, a decline of 2.21%, compared with 21 years in December, a decrease of 2.12%.

Second, December domestic mold steel market operation review

1, mold steel market price trend review

In December, the domestic mold steel market prices rose, the market trading atmosphere in general, including cold, hot mold steel average price of 13,970 yuan / ton and 18,050 yuan / ton, respectively. By mold steel factory prices continue to increase, although the purchase volume did not increase significantly, but the market atmosphere slightly active, the market low resources slightly up, high transaction is still relatively weak, the range did not reach the steel mills this round of increases.

2. mold steel inventory situation

According to the 30 mold steel distribution enterprise research samples continuously tracked by my network, in December, the market merchant inventory in 72,100 tons, compared with November 2022, an increase of 0.06 million tons, compared with 21 years rose 5.26%. Near the end of the year, at this stage, downstream purchases are limited, although merchants winter reserve stock than in previous years to reduce the amount of obvious. However, some of the downstream of the market due to financial problems, demand declined and inventory accumulated passively.

Third, the operation of raw materials ferroalloy

December vanadium alloy market prices as a whole gradually increased, now ferrovanadium FeV50 cash price of 138-142,000 yuan / ton. Market trade operation limitations increased, some companies have expectations of the market but subject to the fear of high psychology, high follow up there are hesitant to maintain the "delivery order-oriented" or "fast in and fast out". Considering the actual end of steel mill preparation, alloy cost building high, the market is expected to improve, vanadium enterprises up emotions and other factors, it is expected that the short-term vanadium alloy market is likely to maintain a high level of strong operation; domestic ferromolybdenum prices this month continue to brush a new high, the end of the mainstream ferromolybdenum cash ex-factory offer in 29.5-30.0 million yuan / ton. The domestic raw material release is driven by a large increase, as well as the stability of the terminal steady demand, steel prices continue to follow up, coupled with the international molybdenum prices continue to rise, multiple positive factors on the molybdenum market forward support, the short-term retracement is limited, the short-term molybdenum market is expected to maintain a strong trend, the follow-up continue to pay attention to the overall actual market situation and mine dynamics; domestic tungsten market is relatively stable, the current FeW80 mainstream report The domestic tungsten market is relatively stable, and the mainstream FeW80 is currently reported at 18.0 million yuan/ton. Under the cost push, smelters passively follow the rise, the downstream cautiously wait and see.

Fourth, in December the domestic mold steel market prices rose slightly

(A) December PMI than last month's decline in macroeconomic downward pressure increased

December 2022, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) of 47.0%, down from 48.0% last month; December, non-manufacturing business activity index of 41.6%, down from 46.7% last month. December in the early stage of the epidemic prevention and control adjustment, the actual number of infections nationwide increased significantly, the manufacturing PMI, as well as the impact of the sub-indicators significantly, dragging the month The manufacturing PMI index continued its downward movement in the contraction range and hit the lowest point in the year.

(B) the downstream purchase to follow up more slowly in December the domestic mold steel market is strong running

December domestic mold steel market prices rose slightly, downstream procurement to follow up more slowly. Due to the recent rise in raw material prices, the mainstream steel mills have raised the ex-factory price of die steel, especially high molybdenum and vanadium materials, downstream enterprises to slightly improve the enthusiasm of the inquiry, but the high level of transaction is still relatively weak. Most merchants in order to return to the capital, operation is very cautious, in the case of demand has not improved, the rising sentiment is more general, not locking prices. Near the end of the year, part of the downstream terminal enterprises affected by factors such as capital, reduce the purchase of steel, the market merchants also gradually shift the focus to the return of money. But taking into account the high prices of raw materials, steel mills are currently high production costs are difficult to down, is expected to January mold steel market or shocks tend to run stronger.

(C) exports continue to be in a sluggish state December mold steel export volume slightly reduced

According to the data tracked by our network, the total export of domestic mold steel in December was 0.94 million tons, accounting for 20.5% of the total mold steel production. Recently, the domestic market as a whole showed an increase in export prices to follow the rise in the magnitude of domestic trade. January ship orders by the holiday and other factors, export inquiries continue to reduce. In the case of external demand is difficult to increment, the domestic mold steel market competition increased, relying only on domestic demand to pull the overall limited.

December mold steel market prices run strong, the market trading activity is less than expected. Affected by the mainstream steel mills to raise the factory price of mold steel, molybdenum-containing varieties of prices rose slightly by 200-500 yuan / ton, the market low resources slightly up, but the range did not reach the steel mills this round of increases. The recent stage of market demand has not been very strong, the current social inventory, steel mill inventory slightly increased, rigid demand to give the market price support weakened. With the full liberalization of domestic epidemic control, domestic macroeconomic policy good news, market pessimism released. January, the market is about to enter the Spring Festival holiday, demand will enter a state of stagnation, the price upward momentum is insufficient, but the cost support will form a substantial impact on prices. In view of the special alloy raw material prices continue to rise, in the cost side of the support and steel mills to boost, is expected in January the die steel market or will shock tend to run stronger.