December mold steel market prices narrow range oscillation is dominant

Updated 2022-12-02

Overview: In November, the domestic die steel market prices fell in part, the downstream procurement to follow up more slowly. Steel mills, this month, Fushun special steel and northeast special steel shares for all varieties of nickel containing 1% Ni price increase of 100 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials, this month, ferroalloy ferromolybdenum market rose sharply, steel mills bidding prices gradually follow up; ferrovanadium market prices narrowly oscillating operation; tungsten market is generally stable; chrome market fell slightly, the end of the month price in 8444 yuan / ton. November gradually into the off-season, coupled with the impact of the epidemic around the transport and market demand is again hampered. Looking ahead to December, macro-level policies will still be expected to be positive, the Fed rate hike, real estate, the epidemic have released significant good news at the same time. Along with the year-end will be approaching, some regions have agreed to the arrival of resources, the market inventory pressure increased, most businesses appear to price for quantity to fall into the bag psychology. Although the raw material prices still exist in a certain support, but in the case of demand is difficult to improve, is expected to December mold steel market overall up and down space is limited, will maintain a pattern of shocks.

A, the domestic mold steel steel production situation

According to my network tracking statistics special steel class mold steel production enterprises 31 (excluding Huangshi area), the total output of mold steel in November for 40,700 tons, compared with 2022 October increased 0.05 million tons, up 1.24%, compared with 21 years in November year-on-year increase of 1.24%. Near the end of the year, the production of mold steel producers to maintain a steady hard to increase.

Second, in November the domestic mold steel market operation review

1, mold steel market price trend review

In November, the domestic mold steel market prices show a shaking weak running trend, the market transaction atmosphere is not good, including cold, hot mold steel average price of 13,960 yuan / ton and 18,020 yuan / ton, respectively. November market demand overall performance is lower than the market expectations, some merchants in the offer based on the bargaining space, for the return of funds, the will to cut prices to ship strengthened.

2, mold steel inventory situation

According to the 30 mold steel distribution enterprise research samples continuously tracked by my network, in November, the market merchant inventory in 71,500 tons, 0.09 million tons less than in October 2022, up 4.53% compared with 21 years. Most traders to digest pre-stock mainly, supplemented by small quantities of missing specification resources. The epidemic continues to spread in some regions, and demand is limited, with some impact on resource distribution.

Third, the operation of raw materials ferroalloys

November vanadium alloy market narrowly oscillating operation, now ferrovanadium FeV50 cash price 131,000 yuan / ton. December steel recruitment has announced the number of the same period last year increased by 33% -50%, but prices slightly down. Steel mills end of the procurement pressure intention does not diminish, the current round of steel bidding game battle line has been drawn up, the alloy enterprise shy sentiment intertwined steel mills procurement pressure mentality, vanadium market or will still meet a new round of game with a tug-of-war situation; this month the domestic molybdenum market rose sharply, the end of the mainstream ferromolybdenum cash ex-factory offer in 23.0-23.2 million yuan / ton. With the recent raw material end of molybdenum concentrate prices continue to ship at a high level, driving the bargaining center of gravity of the ferromolybdenum market has also continued to rise, steel mills bidding prices gradually follow up, but the downstream market is still conservative and cautious about accepting high levels of sentiment. The mines have finished concentrated shipments, the iron plants have finished replenishment, and the steel mills are opening replenishment plans one after another, so the short-term molybdenum market is expected to run at a high level of consolidation; the domestic tungsten market is relatively stable, and the mainstream FeW80 is currently reported at 174,000 yuan/ton. Tungsten powder field orders added few, cemented carbide demand is still in the trough, by the price of the raw material side of the price boosted slightly up offer.

Fourth, in November the domestic mold steel market prices shockingly weak operation

(A) November PMI than last month's decline in the overall level of economic prosperity has fallen

In November 2022, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 48.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, the level of manufacturing production and operation prosperity fell from last month. Influenced by multiple factors such as the frequent occurrence of domestic epidemics and a more complex and severe international environment, the overall level of manufacturing prosperity has fallen this month. But there are still some industries to maintain expansion, including agriculture and food processing, food and wine and beverage refining tea, pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery and equipment industry PMI and production and business activities expected to continue to be in the boom range, market demand to maintain growth, enterprises are more optimistic about the development of the industry.

(B) the downstream purchase to follow up more slowly November domestic mold steel market oscillation weak operation

In November, the domestic mold steel market price shock weak operation, downstream procurement to follow up more slowly. Recent downstream enterprises are not very generous funds, in order to avoid market risks, more on-demand procurement. In the case of weakening demand, merchants to avoid the risk of accumulation, and taking into account the agreement volume pressure still exists, strong willingness to ship, the market low price resources continue to appear. Along with the year-end approaching, the downstream procurement link for the high price of resources acceptance is very poor superimposed on the trade link for the market is cautious attitude, is expected to December mold steel market overall up and down space is limited, will maintain a pattern of shocks.

(C) the export increase space is extremely limited November mold steel export volume slightly reduced

According to the data tracked by our network, the total export of domestic mold steel in November was 10,200 tons, accounting for 21.79% of the total mold steel production. The current external demand is gradually slowing down the trend, the export increase space is extremely limited. In the case of external demand is difficult to increment, the domestic mold steel market competition increased.

The recent downstream consumer demand release is not as expected, the delivery cycle is passively extended, the industry chain capital pressure is prominent. December is in the end of the year stage, everyone to complete the agreement volume and reduce the inventory before the year, the willingness to ship or further strengthen. At present, the high cost of ferroalloy raw materials, the price of die steel support is strong, but still need to focus on the downstream demand and market funding situation. Considering the reduction in demand after entering December, the inventory pressure or further increase in the later stages, is expected to December mold steel market overall up and down space is limited, will remain a pattern of shocks.